The election results are out and Bengal has given its verdict that they want Mamta Banerjee to continue running the government in West Bengal. The verdict is not marginal rather it’s an astounding majority with which TMC has come back to power. Let’s look at the main factors for TMC’s win and BJP’s loss.
What were the factors behind TMC’s win?
Prashant Kishor, the strategist who guided the TMC to victory is one of the biggest factors behind TMC’s win. He did his homework well and planned the elections with an eye on the prize at all times. He very clearly said in an interview that BJP has come a long way in Bengal and that there is no doubt that PM Modi is very popular in the state. This shows that he was not underestimating the opponent and that’s why he was prepared for the battle. He is great at what he does and the result speaks for him.
Mamta Banerjee is a warrior. I don’t care what kind of CM she has been (that debate can be for some other time) but as an individual, she is a fighter. She single-handedly took on BJP and won against the biggest politicians in the country. Now that is praiseworthy.
Congress & Communist Party: The absence of a third front helped TMC a lot as the Muslim votes didn’t get divided amongst these parties. All the Muslim votes went to TMC undivided and Bengal has a large population of Muslims. So any place where the population of Muslims was more than 15%, there TMC won the seat. Congress and Communist Party would have won less to no setas anyways, so their absence worked in the favor of TMC.
Media played a big role in the win. Whether media is biased or not – that’s an accusation that comes from either side – so neutral media is a myth. But the point is not that the media was leaning towards Mamta Banerjee, rather the media was being selective in showing the full picture. The media was just looking for TRPs which is sad since the media’s role in any election is of utmost importance. This Bengal Election was focused so much on Nandigram as if other constituencies are not important. This narrative became the only talking point. The media needs to cover the full area in detail and educate people about the candidates – then only they will make the right choice that will be beneficial for them and their constituency. Let’s hope they up their game for the next elections.
What were the factors behind BJP’s loss?
Over Confidence : The over confidence of BJP was one of the biggest reason for their loss. They had almost every big leader from the center to come and do a road show or a rally in Bengal. PM Modi did so many rallies and so did Amit Shah. From Rajnath Singh to Smriti Irani, everyone came to Bengal to campaign for BJP.
The main reason for their over confidence was the result they got in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections. The result might have shocked them as well. But since then they were confident that they would form the government in Bengal. And later when TMC leaders were leaving the party and joining BJP, that would have boosted their already over-inflated confidence even more.
No Face as CM : BJP needs to understand that people of a state need to know who is going to be their CM. Whom are they voting for. PM Modi can campaign for the election but he won’t be the CM of the state. BJP needs to give the people of the state their CM candidate. They had made the same mistake in Delhi. It’s time that they learn this time.
Cultivate Strong Local Leaders : BJP should not run state election machinery from Delhi. For state elections, there should be strong local leaders who are capable of taking decisions. Delhi’s role should be that of a supervisor. Assam elections also happened simultaneously and you can compare it with Bengal. BJP won Assam because they had strong leaders in Assam like Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal.
Candidate Selection : BJP was coming to Bengal to remove TMC from power and then giving tickets to ex-TMC leaders who were joining BJP. Waahhh!!!! Basically if BJP would have come to power it would have been a B-Team of TMC.
Here again we come back to the previous point, strong local leaders should select the candidates and then the list can go to Delhi for final scrutiny. But here the center decided the candidates and gave them tickets which should not be the case.
Not Taking Advantage of the Anti-incumbency: There were too many factors that were going against Mamta Banerjee and TMC. Corruption, Scams, Violence, and many more such things were prevalent during the TMC government. BJP’s campaign strategy and its implementation should have been around these important points rather in the end the Bengal election became all about violence & communalism. BJP would be regretting that they wasted an opportunity because of their overconfidence.
Under Estimating The Opponent: BJP was overconfident because they underestimated their opponent. There might have been an anti-incumbency against TMC but they changed the full narrative of the election. A narrative that favored TMC. BJP should have fought only on the development agenda and would have won the election. But TMC and especially Prashant Kishor made sure that they change the dynamics of the election. From the Insider-Outsider concept to Communal Politics. They even brought all the focus to one place Nandigram. Made it a prestigious battle. And caught all Media & BJP’s attention. BJP had no clue that they were falling into a trap.
BJP won Nandigram but lost Bengal. They underestimated their opponent and the results are for all to see.
Conclusion
There might be more factors that shaped up the result but I think that these were really critical ones.
TMC and Mamta Banerjee should enjoy this victory but I think the fight against Coronavirus should be the priority of the state government now.
BJP should introspect and the center leaders should focus on Corona War. It should be the only priority right now.
Democracy is a celebration and we are proud to be born in the biggest democracy of the world.
Winning in a democratic election means that the people have selected you to take control of the administration of the state for 5 years.
Losing in a democratic election means that your responsibility as an opposition is to make sure the government is doing the job correctly and that they are always on its toes.
Jai Hind
1 comment
Very well written! Another reason is that the BJP has fallen prey to its own tactics of communalism in Bengal. They need to make major reforms so that the same mistake is avoided in UP in 2022 because that can be a game changer.